Once again, I'm just not very interested in the GOP field. Apparently they have all these different people running for President, but all I see is pretty much the same old white guy who would be an utter disaster as President no matter what name they put at the bottom of the screen. The authoritarian nutjob called "Giuliani" is shedding supporters rather quickly, but they're finding a nice home with the authoritarian nutjob called "McCain" who is, apparently, still running for President. Grandpa's "support" comes from those who feel sorry for him getting trotted out for a few minutes of mumbled rambling about Reagan, Ron Paul gets the votes of those who think New Hampshires' motto is "Live Free and Kill the Darkies," and so on. So let's move on, shall we?
The Democratic race is not quite as tight here as it is in Iowa. Here's the trends up to 12/26:
Hillary is having worse trouble here than in Iowa. The dropoff is steeper. Obama is the clear beneficiary, and Edwards' trend line is similar to Iowa except that his support has remained steadier, though lower. If the election were being held tomorrow, I'd predict Obama-Hillary-Edwards as the 1-2-3 spots, but of course the NH primary doesn't happen in a vacuum. Hillary is going to really suffer from losing Iowa, and New Hampshire will end up bad enough for her that the Villagers will start writing their post-mortems. Obama looks to win New Hampshire, with Edwards posting a strong second - though not as strong as Obama will be in Iowa.
The tone of the Obama/Hillary campaigns in the five days between the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary might prove vitally important not only in NH but beyond. If they really start attacking one another, when Hillary loses supporters they won't go to Obama, but Edwards. This could prove crucial for Edwards's chances later on. I believe Obama is too strong a believer in his own mojo to give up an inch, but if Hillary sees the writing on the wall it's entirely conceivable that she'll endorse Edwards in exchange for the VP slot on the ticket. If that happened it would seal the deal for Edwards.
There. Plenty of kindling for comment flames, plenty of neck-stretching and limb-going-out-on.
