"Couldn't I Just Tell You" - Matthew Sweet and Susanna Hoffs
Sorry for the dearth of posting -- it was quite the busy week as I had feared.
- There is a very interesting piece in the New Yorker this past week about Marco Rubio -- in part about his difficult relationship with Univision. Unfortunately the piece is subscription only -- I read the dead tree version waiting in a doctor's office -- but there is an online interview with Ken Auletta, the author of the piece, which gives you a feel for it. Actually, one of the most interesting aspects of the article was about Univision itself -- and what a sleeping giant it is, an entity that draws as big an audience as the four major television networks on occasion and one which dominates the viewing habits of its watchers. The management of Univision is very much in favor of immigration reform and understandably unhappy with the bashing of Hispanic migrants that has become the norm within the Republican Party. Rubio and Univision have a feud ongoing, which became the excuse for Republican presidential candidates to boycott a Univision sponsored debate. My sense is that the Republicans have made a powerful enemy here and have done so with no real feel for its implications.
Like many people, I think that Rubio will be at the top of the short list for Republican vice presidential choices. I also think that if chosen (and he accepts, which is not a given) he is likely to disappoint both in terms of being able to deliver Florida to the GOP and particularly in terms of his ability to deliver Hispanic votes. Rubio is the child of Cuban immigrants (although not exiles as he has falsely claimed), a group that is really sui generis among America's Hispanic voters. They are generally more affluent, better educated, and very far to the right of their latino brethren. Most importantly of all, Cubans have long had free access to the U.S. in a way that other Hispanics -- the bulk of whom come from Mexico -- could only dream. In short, Cubans are deeply unrepresentative of the broader Hispanic vote in the country.
As a result, I suspect that if Rubio is on the ticket (or later runs nationally) he will have only limited appeal in the community of voters he is supposed to be able to attract. (As I noted in comments below, I think he will be effective in the way that Sarah Palin was effective in attracting Hillary Clinton supporters.)
I continue to think that the Hispanic vote is going to be the key in 2012 and the next couple of presidential elections that follow. And now I think -- to make a bad pun -- that Univision really bears watching. I am betting the Obama campaign will be spending a small fortune there this year.
Alright, so what else has been going on while I've been playing lawyer?
I have a lot to say about the topics above, but first I am going to do something I've only done once before, and that is repost a comment I just made in the last open thread. But this was so disturbing I thought it needed to appear in a thread I hadn't already drowned.
I'll blockquote it:
I used to complain when a Craig or Haggard scandal 'unleashed the inner homophobe' in some liberals, but there was always the excuse -- sometimes prosciutto-thin -- that they were laughing at his hypocrisy, not his orientation.
There is no excuse for this!
Posted by: Prup (aka Jim Benton) | January 14, 2012 at 12:25 PM
I'm not going to dorwn this thread -- but for those who are interested, I'll continue my ranting -- with even some positive suggestions -- on the old thread. But Univision is fascinating. It was, iirc, the second most valuable tv-related asset in the recent NBC sale, second only to USA Network. (The broadcast part, the 'NBC' we all know, was valued at minus $200 million, but it's been having some ridiculously hard times these last few years.)
It frequently will out-draw an English-language network that is running mostly repeats -- last week it outdrew FOX -- and over the Christmas to New Year's week it was the most watched network in the country -- both in total viewers and in the 'coveted demographic' of 18-49 year olds. (And I'm not even counting the "CW" which it regularly outdraws -- so much that it is above them for the season in both by 50%)
(TVbytheNumbers is a valuable site if you are interested in the subject.
Posted by: Prup (aka Jim Benton) | January 14, 2012 at 12:56 PM
Jim,
I don't like that kind of sexist language even if the target is a loathsome Fox personality.
(Although I still reserve the right to call Bill O'Reilly a splotchy faced mick motherfucker.)
I am watching the New Orleans - San Francisco game right now and I must say it is one of the most enjoyable football games I've ever watched. Amazing stuff. Looks like San Francisco has pulled an upset.
Posted by: Sir Charles | January 14, 2012 at 08:14 PM
That was some game, though I was pulling for NO because I enjoy watching Brees, and loved the way they played in the Super Bowl a few years ago (took lots of chances instead of the usual conservative nonsense). SF deserved to win, though: NO just turned the ball over way too much. :(
I don't like sexist language from our side either. Engage and destroy the other person's arguments. Name-calling and ad hominen attacks just make it look like you don't have a good counter-argument to present. In other words, you're acting like Fox and the GOP.
Posted by: beckya57 | January 14, 2012 at 08:22 PM
Anyone besides me hoping Brady shows all the Tebow-worshippers how the quarterback position is supposed to be played?
Posted by: beckya57 | January 14, 2012 at 08:23 PM
becky,
Re: Brady. Oh hell yeah. (I maintain my loyalty to all my old Boston area teams.)
Jesus just fumbled. (Must be the stigmata acting up.)
That opening drive was a thing of beauty.
Posted by: Sir Charles | January 14, 2012 at 08:27 PM
Can I just note that the Patriots have the greatest tight end tandem in the history of football.
Posted by: Sir Charles | January 14, 2012 at 08:37 PM
Hi Sir C, I remember your suffering during the last day of the baseball season over the Red Sox...or was I not supposed to mention that? ;)
Posted by: beckya57 | January 14, 2012 at 08:44 PM
Most definitely not.
Wow, shockingly ugly pick thrown by Brady after looking perfect on the first two series. Really uncharacteristic.
I predict he will bounce back with a vengeance.
Posted by: Sir Charles | January 14, 2012 at 08:55 PM
Help out here folks if you've a mind. This installed cipher is Cantor and Boehner's respectable female photo-op sidekick. And if the House GOP doesn't get threatened, she's a part of your future too. Dear, dog. She's tall, she's sane, she's young and attractive and she has a DS child + babe still in halter-sling. Bio-pic at eleven
And Sir C and becky. If you keep IM'ing about sports...well, I'll have to register an official complaint. ;-))
Posted by: nancy | January 14, 2012 at 10:05 PM
Univision has been a central factor in Democratic dominance at the state wide level in California since 1998 (minus Gov. Arnold, but he was a freak and not much loved by his own Reps). It has taken both parties awhile to understand how potent it is, but Dems do now get it.
From a happy 49er fan ...
Posted by: janinsanfran | January 14, 2012 at 10:09 PM
Oh. My. God. Brady.
Posted by: Paula B | January 14, 2012 at 10:15 PM
nancy,
We will refer your concern to the complaints department.
The Republicans seem to have a knack for coming up with these attractive yet insane women to fill the ranks - Palin, Bachmann, Haley, hell, I'll even admit to thinking witchy women O'Donnell was kind of cute. It's disturbing. (Although it seems to be more effective at garnering male votes -- it doesn't typically shrink the gender gap.)
janinsanfran,
I have to confess real ignorance about the scope of Univision. It makes total sense when you think about the size of the potential audience, but I just had never really seen stats on it. I suspect that they will have quite the revenue bump during the general election.
Nice win by your boys today -- really impressive.
Paula,
He's a good looking SOB too.
Posted by: Sir Charles | January 14, 2012 at 10:30 PM
He doesn't have to be.
Posted by: paula b | January 14, 2012 at 10:38 PM
The first time I saw a picture of him I thought he looked like a parody of a quarterback hero.
I will be curious to see how much more he plays tonight.
The game is a bit like watching a college team play a pro team.
Posted by: Sir Charles | January 14, 2012 at 10:44 PM
Speaking of tonight's game, Jimmy Fallon's TeBowie! is a thing of beauty.
To the tune of "Space Oddity":
Tim Tebow to Jesus Christ
Tim Tebow to Jesus Christ
Can't win by myself but with your help I might
Tim Tebow to Jesus Christ
[Jesus' response]
I hear that you play New England next week
Dude, you're on your own
Brady is too good and I've better things to do
I'm starting to love this guy.
Posted by: low-tech cyclist | January 14, 2012 at 11:00 PM
That is so awesome.
Posted by: Sir Charles | January 14, 2012 at 11:24 PM
We Bowie fans don't mind loaning our idol to the holy cause of disparaging Tebow.
Sorry, nancy, but some of us are sports nuts, and the spectacle of this narcissistic holier than thou jerk getting his is just too enjoyable to ignore....
Sir C, that's a good point about attractive but insane female right-wingers. Ann Coulter and Michelle Malkin are the media versions. I think this is actually a modern twist on a type that's been around forever: the attractive woman who plays to the men with her looks to try to get ahead, rather than developing her skills, and who often identifies with powerful men and holds other women in contempt.
Posted by: beckya57 | January 14, 2012 at 11:40 PM
becky,
I find Coulter skeletal and unappealing in the extreme.
I was on the same flight as Malkin one year when I was leaving netroots in Austin. She is attractive, but has a look on her face that really conveys her inner nastiness. (Michael Steele was also on the flight -- he conveys a very different vibe. He actually seems like a very pleasant guy.)
I will never understand the appeal of the GOP to anyone but affluent white men.
T
Posted by: Sir Charles | January 15, 2012 at 12:11 AM
IM thing. Guess it was a joke too opaque. I love sports nuts, especially the ones under my own roof. :)
The female sane right-winger in my district I referenced. Not so funny. At all.
Posted by: nancy | January 15, 2012 at 01:03 AM
"I will never understand the appeal of the GOP to anyone but affluent white men."
There's another group, I think. Judging from my father's colleagues in the US Navy officer corps in the 50s-60s-70s, Republicans all (Dad was an exception, as was Mom), this group wants an ordered society and is vastly uncomfortable with change. Things are fine the way they are, in that group's view.
I should add that back then military salaries were nowhere near as high as they are now. I was stunned to see that my Dad's salary at his retirement would have been $10K per month. Believe me, in 1974 when he retired after 31 years it wasn't more than a third of that. He may actually have gotten a raise two weeks later when he went to work at a big local bank as a VP.
The point is, there's a lot of incentive for that group to vote with the crowd that's averse to change, and that's historically been the Republicans.
Posted by: Linkmeister | January 15, 2012 at 01:12 AM
Good point Linkmeister. I think a lot of the white working class people who support them are definitely afraid of change, and this is exemplified by their obsession with the culture's more open acceptance of non-traditional sexual behavior. I also think they don't understand the extent to which the GOP is selling their economic interests down the river.
nancy, I think Sir C and I both got the joke. ;-) The Ravens are making the Texans look like the inexperienced team they are right now.
Sir C, I agree that Coulter is too skinny, but that look is popular with a lot of people. I have also noticed that while Malkin is attractive she always seems to have an ugly expression that twists her face. She's a good example of the line about beauty only being skin deep (if that).
Posted by: beckya57 | January 15, 2012 at 01:55 PM
P.S. We're getting heavy (for us) snow here for the first time this season. Glad I'm off work tomorrow, the driving conditions probably won't be too good. Pacific Northwesterners have no clue about snow, including how to drive in it.
Posted by: beckya57 | January 15, 2012 at 01:57 PM
becky, a friend in the NW posted a photo the other day -- a freeway sign that said: "oh my god! is that snow?!? we're all gonna die!!!!" my sister went to grad school in seattle, and reports that it's all true. plus, city of hills and bridges and approximately 2 snowplows.
Posted by: kathy a. | January 15, 2012 at 04:23 PM
Uh-oh. If weather's the subject I'm shutting up right now. I get nothing but derision if I comment on it (what do you know, you live in Hawai'i!).
Posted by: Linkmeister | January 15, 2012 at 05:37 PM
kathy: That is so true. Don't forget that the snow here is wet and heavy and very slippery. People here put too much trust in their 4 wheel drive vehicles, especially on ice.
Linkmeister: I'm jealous (though I love the NW). Where in Hawai'i? I play the ukulele and will be attending Aloha Music Camp in Kona next month.
The Giants are ahead at halftime???? The GB secondary is as bad as advertised.
Posted by: beckya57 | January 15, 2012 at 06:11 PM
Right now, it's 6 whole degrees at 7:30 p.m. on the Mass/Vermont line. That's up from zero (maybe below) earlier today, so I guess I can't complain. Actually, we're pleased that winter finally found us. And, yes, we have snow cover, but nothing like we should have at this time of year. All in all, no complaints. When it comes to surviving winter, I have just two words of advice -- long underwear.
Posted by: Paula B | January 15, 2012 at 07:46 PM
Columbia Jackets = spam.
Posted by: Paula B | January 15, 2012 at 08:45 PM
Paula -- my two words of advice are 'stay home.' Becky, remember this? Egad. Glad I missed that bus.
Once I drove through the Siskiyous (southern Oregon) on packed ice because I happened to be the person behind the wheel when we started the trek. Once you're the pilot on ice in the mountains, well...you're the pilot. I looked over at the other side of I-5 to see chained-up tractor trailers sliding backward on the mountain. Our next stop after getting through that was a flash flood in California, water rising and the ignition lights flasing on, killing the engine and stalled behind a poorly-placed roadblock. Yikes. 'Stay home.'
Posted by: nancy | January 15, 2012 at 08:46 PM
omigod, nancy.
Posted by: Paula B | January 15, 2012 at 09:00 PM
nancy, that sounds like a couple years back. I decided the Cascade pass was too risky and went the coastal route instead - and 101 washed out at the Russian River. Then it washed out north of Brookings hours after we'd just passed it. So we headed east on 299 through the mountains - they're low and inland - but it got blocked about a dozen cars in front of us past Weaverville. Then we headed south on 3 and east on something until we hit I-5, which was being lashed by rain and storm by that time and the towns were starting to have power fail... Wasn't until we got over the hills on 680 into the east bay that we came out of that storm.
Hours and hours of driving extra. I didn't mind, I'd driven all those roads before - well, 'cept CA 3 - as I grew up in southern Oregon on the coast. Spouse was freaking out, though, watching the river rise and threaten our last routes and even 5 and 680 weren't shedding water fast enough.
For all the late-night driving and hazardous weather driving I do, all my wrecks save one have been in perfect weather in the afternoon or early evening.
I pushed mom to get snow tires on her new car, but I doubt she did, but at least she has a clean garage to put it in. She did call and ask me what brands I was recommending.
Posted by: Crissa | January 15, 2012 at 09:06 PM
linkmeister. hawai'i. sorry, you get no sympathy. :-)) not from me anyway. as my furnace kicks on monstrously.
Posted by: nancy | January 15, 2012 at 10:53 PM
becky,
Careful out there.
I must say I am shocked that neither Green Bay or New Orleans is going to be in the NFC championship game. But the Giants righteously kicked Green Bay's ass today -- even with a couple of really bad calls by the refs.
And linkmeister,
Watch out for the surf. And the sun. Killers all I tell you.
It's just cold here right now -- no exciting precipitation. It was 29 tonight, but boy it felt a whole lot colder.
Posted by: Sir Charles | January 15, 2012 at 11:43 PM
nancy, I remember that bus all too well. Sir C, I promise to be careful, and I'm very surprised too. Mostly I'm surprised at how poorly NO played in the first half--all those turnovers!--and how bad GB was for the whole game. No question the other teams deserved to win. As for the refs, Scott Lemieux at LGM pointed out that one of them was also on the ref team that made so many bad calls in SB XL. That guy needs to retire...or be retired....
Posted by: beckya57 | January 16, 2012 at 04:01 PM
Like I said, derision. ;)
I'm on O'ahu, a mile due north of Pearl Harbor. I can see the Arizona Memorial on my way down the hill.
I had an Oregon driving experience as well, fortunately without weather to complicate things. Just an additional eight hours on PCH/101 I hadn't expected.
Posted by: Linkmeister | January 16, 2012 at 04:45 PM
I have to confess real ignorance about the scope of Univision.
I would have been too, but I've lived with a native-born Colombian for nine years who while very understandable in English still clearly only speaks Spanish fluently. That has caused me to notice how few television channels (even on cable here in the Boston area) are in Spanish. When I consider Univision in that context (where its only real competition so far as I'm aware is Telemundo) I can easily imagine how potent it could be if it adopted a particular political stance that had a lot of sympathy among Latinos living in the USA. I can easily imagine it (or Telemundo) becoming the Fox News channel of Latino Americans.
Posted by: oddjob | January 17, 2012 at 01:10 PM
Whoa---One million sign petition to recall Wisconsin gov
http://nyti.ms/w9ee8m
Posted by: Paula B | January 17, 2012 at 05:40 PM
Reasons to believe Pennsylvania may not vote for Obama this autumn:
...It seems that in 2012, there may be a close election determined by a world beyond the suburbs of Philadelphia, turnout in Cleveland and the trends of the Florida panhandle — and how it all plays out might make the new political map a little more permanent.
Must read for Sir C (& possibly Prup) if no one else.
Posted by: oddjob | January 18, 2012 at 09:19 AM
The downside of fracking (& it includes stuff getting into groundwater, despite it not supposed to be doing that).
Posted by: oddjob | January 18, 2012 at 09:31 AM